Maybe. By a slight - if significant - majority.

But Belgium is the tail that wags the elephant. The bureaucrats have already posted notice that they expect any votes that amount to "no" will automatically force new votes (rinse, repeat...) until a universal "yes" is achieved.

Posted by: John Anderson at May 26, 2005 05:37 AM | Permalink to this comment

I'd be willing to place a modest wager on French xenophobia, myself.

Posted by: JM Hanes at May 26, 2005 05:49 AM | Permalink to this comment

"The bureaucrats have already posted notice that they expect any votes that amount to "no" will automatically force new votes (rinse, repeat...) until a universal "yes" is achieved."

Ah... zee old Canadian ploy...

Posted by: richard mcenroe at May 26, 2005 05:51 AM | Permalink to this comment

a french "no" will change nothing anyway. european process towards stronger unification is a matter of fact, is unescapable and france will join anyway, simply because it has no other choice (unless one can conceive that france may want to choose to become a US - or china - pawn within an unified europe). the only things which will change are, of course, timing, and the ability of france to negotiate during the process: it will diminish. a french "no" will simply mean that france shall have much less negotiating power with those countries which have already ratified the constitution, also via a parliamentary vote: germany, italy, spain, belgium, and the others. it will simply be a very unwise decision for the french themselves, and great news for germans, italians, bruxelles bureaucrats, and the rest.

Posted by: zuavo at May 26, 2005 12:08 PM | Permalink to this comment

A French Non will have far ranging consequences internally to France. The most obvious is that the side that wants to preserve their "social model" (i.e. the unions etc.) will be emboldened. They will be greatly encouraged in the idea that they can legislate their way to prosperity and security as they did in 2000 when they passed the 35 hour work law. They are now seeing their unemployment rate go over 10% a few months ago and going higher, the highest in 5 years. A Non vote will encourage them to push for more of the same. Their "social model" is a fancy word for socialism; it's never worked, never will work, but French Non will mean that they are going to continue to go down that road. Result: France will become poorer and poorer.

Posted by: Donald at May 26, 2005 12:42 PM | Permalink to this comment

I am not so sure.

After all, it looked as though the 1992 Maastricht referendum was going to fail as well, but then suddenly, over 70% of the votes from France's overseas territories (Guyana, New Caledonia etc) came in with a 'Oui.'

The result was announced as a very close 'Oui.'

At the time, Britain's Jack Straw marvelled that they could produce the verdict so soon after the polls closed, intimating that he believed that the result may have been fiddled.

If it worked one time...

Posted by: Kosmopolit at May 26, 2005 08:02 PM | Permalink to this comment