February 24, 2006

Iranian-Syrian Rapprochment Watch

As the US position in Iraq remains so difficult (and as regional actors calculate the U.S. will be reducing its presence dramatically in Iraq at the end of '06), Syria is increasingly placing its bets with Teheran rather than the West. The narrative is a tad more complex than that, and Bashar's bet might not be the right one, of course, but for now it appears a Syrian-Iranian axis is bolstering up in anticipation of an under-100,000-US-GIs-in-Iraq-neighborhood...Without a strong central Iraqi Army, and not forgeting Turkish involvement, it's not too difficult to see some preemptive 'sphere of influence' trading going on here for the going forward 'hood...

Meantime, I would suggest to the Israeli Ambassador to the UN that the phrase "axis of terror" might be too rhetorically close to Bush's erstwhile "axis of evil". Let's be a tad more subtle, no? We don't want to make life too easy for the conspiracy-mongers!

Posted by Gregory at February 24, 2006 03:01 AM | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Syria signed an agreement with the mullahs to base Iranian missiles back in December. I've long argued that part of the mullah's strategy is to set up the missiles first, then add the warheads later. That way any boycotts or trade restrictions won't affect their nuclear war-making capabilities.

Posted by: Solomon2 at February 24, 2006 03:36 PM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

Syria signed an agreement with the mullahs to base Iranian missiles back in December. I've long argued that part of the mullah's strategy is to set up the missiles first, then add the warheads later. That way any boycotts or trade restrictions won't affect their nuclear war-making capabilities.

Posted by: Solomon2 at February 24, 2006 03:38 PM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

smart moves by Syria and Iran, if you ask me.

They share a whole bunch of common enemies

1) the USA
2) Israel
3) Kurds
4) radical Sunni Islamists

my guess is that Turkey is also being talked to, with the "solution" being fairly simple......

Syria gets western Iraq, including the Kirkuk oil fields....
Turkey gets Dohuk and Erbil -- and carte blanche to deal with the Kurds as they see fit, and Iran gets everything else, including Baghdad, and a whole bunch of highly experienced and knowledgeable nuclear scientists....

and peace reigns in the middle east for another 50 years or so.

Posted by: p.lukasiak at February 24, 2006 04:01 PM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

About Belgravia Dispatch

Gregory Djerejian, an international lawyer and business executive, comments intermittently on global politics, finance & diplomacy at this site. The views expressed herein are solely his own and do not represent those of any organization.


More About the Author
Email the Author
Recent Entries
Search



The News
The Blogs
Foreign Affairs Commentariat
Law & Finance
Think Tanks
Security
Books
The City
Epicurean Corner
Archives
Syndicate this site:
XML RSS

Belgravia Dispatch Maintained by:
www.vikeny.com

Powered by