March 01, 2006

Catch-22?

From a new ICG report on the growing sectarianism in Iraq:

“Sunnis and Shiites are not yet in an all-out fight”, asserted an Iraqi journalist, “because the Americans are still there. A huge part of the insurgency is fuelled by the American presence. If the Americans leave, or announce a timetable for their withdrawal, the insurgents will start an all-out fight with the Shiites. And the Shiites will know they no longer have the Americans to protect them”. Left without their protectors, the Shiite parties will have no choice but to face the insurgents directly – with the aim to crush them. “We will take care of the problem” once U.S. forces leave, a member of the Sadr movement predicted confidently. A prolonged presence, of course, is not cost-free, as it mobilises anti-American sentiment and support for the insurgency. Indeed, some Iraqis argue that the Bush administration is using the threat of civil war as an excuse to maintain its troops. Having found no weapons of mass destruction and unable to prove a link between the Baathist regime and al-Qaeda, “what alternative argument do the Americans have for not leaving?”, asked Wamidh Nadhmi. “This is why they are using the pretext of civil war to stay”. Nonetheless, there is every reason to fear that a precipitous U.S. withdrawal, or a withdrawal before establishment of an inclusive government and creation of a largely self-sustaining, non-sectarian military and police force, likely would unleash a full scale civil war. In the end, the question of a troop drawdown is likely to be determined by domestic U.S. concerns. But any assessment of the consequences that can reasonably be expected from such a move should take into account the risk of an all-out civil war.

Feels like a Catch-22 sometimes, doesn't it? But if U.S. forces stay, there is at least a chance that an Iraqi Army with a multi-ethnic officer corps can take root--over several more years yet--and provide stability to a nascent Iraqi polity. And Zalmay Khalilzad's fervent attempts at consensus building require continued American commitment, both in terms of troops and funds (or denying funds to parts of the Army that become overly influenced by militias). If U.S. forces withdraw in large numbers, it is certain Khalilzad's influence will wane along with departing service-members. My point? Continued U.S. involvement will be problematic, difficult, often tragic. On the other hand, a precipitous U.S. withdrawal all but guarantees Iraq capsizing into large scale civil war. So what's the right call? I think one must conclude standing firm is the order of the day, at least at this juncture. The trickier question, perhaps, is this: what if Iraq degenerates into full-blown civil war despite a continued American presence? More on that soon.

Posted by Gregory at March 1, 2006 05:05 AM | TrackBack (0)