July 15, 2006

IDF Mood Watch

Old college "homey" and defense guru Noah Shachtman links to a very interesting Stratfor piece:

Israel lives with three realities: geographic, demographic and cultural. Geographically, it is at a permanent disadvantage, lacking strategic depth. It does enjoy the advantage of interior lines -- the ability to move forces rapidly from one front to another. Demographically, it is on the whole outnumbered, although it can achieve local superiority in numbers by choosing the time and place of war. Its greatest advantage is cultural. It has a far greater mastery of the technology and culture of war than its neighbors.

Two of the realities cannot be changed. Nothing can be done about geography or demography. Culture can be changed. It is not inherently the case that Israel will have a technological or operational advantage over its neighbors. The great inherent fear of Israel is that the Arabs will equal or surpass Israeli prowess culturally and therefore militarily. If that were to happen, then all three realities would turn against Israel and Israel might well be at risk.

That is why the capture of Israeli troops, first one in the south, then two in the north, has galvanized Israel. The kidnappings represent a level of Arab tactical prowess that previously was the Israeli domain. They also represent a level of tactical slackness on the Israeli side that was previously the Arab domain. These events hardly represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power. Nevertheless, for a country that depends on its cultural superiority, any tremor in this variable reverberates dramatically. Hamas and Hezbollah have struck the core Israeli nerve. Israel cannot ignore it...[emphasis added]

I think that's very true and rather perceptive. You can add also the tactical adeptness (or slackness, depending on your vantage point) of the successful Hezbollah drone attack on the Israeli navy ship off Beirut, and also this story (apparently there was earlier at least some surprise that Hezbollah katyushas were reaching Tiberias, and perhaps beyond, note Tiberias hasn't come under rocket attack since 1973). The IDF is an immensely talented force, and they hold themselves to very, very, very high standards (as they must, they live in a very tough neighborhood, and even with their overwhelming military edge, the slightest missteps can be immensely costly).

So Noah is right to prominently link this piece, as it doubtless explains much of the raw psychology at play here. Frankly, and this is obviously hugely speculative, I think some of what I believe to have been the strategic over-reaching and over-reaction (the attack on Hariri International Airport, a full blown naval blockade, significant attacks on the Beirut-Damascus road), might be a result of not a small amount of embarrassment among some in the IDF that the soldiers were kidnapped, both in the south and to the north, so brazenly. And with the drone attack and reports that some missiles might be able to reach even Tel Aviv, and in the continued absence of any real American leadership as this crisis intensifies (we are woefully AWOL in terms of trying to get an immediate ceasefire), I see things ratcheting up, rather than down, over the weekend. Many innocents on both sides will continue to die before this conflagration is over, alas.