July 21, 2006

Koppel and Jordanian Intelligence

Ted Koppel:

The United States is already at war with Iran; but for the time being the battle is being fought through surrogates.

That message was conveyed to me recently by a senior Jordanian intelligence official at his office in Amman. He spoke on the condition of anonymity, reflecting gloomily on the failure of the Bush administration’s various policies in the region.

He reserved his greatest contempt for the policy of encouraging democratic reform. “For the Islamic fundamentalists, democratic reform is like toilet paper,” he said. “You use it once and then you throw it away.”

Lest the point elude me, the official conducted a brief tour of recent democratic highlights in the region. Gaza and the West Bank, where Hamas, spurned by the State Department as a terrorist organization, was voted into power last spring and now represents the Palestinian government; Lebanon, where Hezbollah, similarly rejected by the United States, has become the most influential political entity in the country; and, of course, Iraq, where the Shiite majority has now, through elections, gained political power commensurate with its numbers.

In each case, the intelligence officer reminded me, the beneficiary of those electoral victories is allied with and, to some degree, dependent upon Iran. Over the past couple of months alone, he told me, Hamas has received more than $300 million in cash, provided by Iran and funneled through Syria. He told me what has now become self-evident to the residents of Haifa: namely, that Iran has made longer-range and more powerful rockets and missiles available to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Ah, you say, it is all about the Iranians! On to Teheran, with a side excursion to their proxy bed-fellow Syria!

But wait...Koppel, again:

But Washington’s greatest gift to the Iranians lies next door in Iraq. By removing Saddam Hussein, the United States endowed the majority Shiites with real power, while simultaneously tearing down the wall that had kept Iran in check.

According to the Jordanian intelligence officer, Iran is reminding America’s traditional allies in the region that the United States has a track record of leaving its friends in the lurch — in Vietnam in the 70’s, in Lebanon in the 80’s, in Somalia in the 90’s.

In his analysis, the implication that this decade may witness a precipitous American withdrawal from Iraq has begun to produce an inclination in the region toward appeasing Iran.

It is in Iraq, he told me, “where the United States and the coalition forces must confront the Iranians.’’ He added, “You must build up your forces in Iraq and you must announce your intention to stay.”

What responsible people in the Beltway should be doing now, regarding Middle East policy, and aside from seeking a cease-fire in Lebanon and preparing for the next round of Iran-related diplomacy on the nuclear issue--is focusing anew like a laser on how America can marshall all its resources to improve the security situation in Iraq. As Koppel (and his Jordanian source, one admitedly somewhat self-interested in terms of preserving Hashemite stability) correctly points out, this is the main battle-field with Iran at the moment, and this is where America must make its strongest stand in the neighborhood: namely to turn around the increasingly abysmal disaster that has become the US intervention in Iraq. If we lose there, we will have handed the Mullahs in Iran their greatest prize. Fanciful talk of wars on Iran and Syria (this includes ginning up civil wars there or air strikes) and related cogitations replete with easy, seductive talk of pan-regional panaceas in the offing, but for new interventions, are really just irresponsible, quasi-mastubatory drivel. It's about Iraq, stupid--and cooling the situation in Lebanon too, of course. This last, ultimately, involves a return to the negotiating table, meaning a mature peace process that America, front and center, would lead with sustained attention. And resucitating Iraq, in my view, means we need a new Defense Secretary, one not tarred by the legacy of the past three odd awful years there, and one ready to do a top-down review of our Iraq policy without ideological, bureaucratic or other blinders on. Yes, hoping against hope to turn Iraq around will take so much more than one single personnel adjustment, of course, but it is a necessary precursor to moving towards forging a fresh approach, I deeply believe. Appoint Dick Armitage!