July 24, 2006

Mailbag

A reader dissents regarding my take on the Lebanese government's view of the Israeli action against Hezbollah:

Greg:

I am a regular reader and I generally enjoy your writing. I also just returned from to the States from my apartment in Lebanon, where I had been living for the last few months. Regarding Rich Lowry's comments on the Lebanese government being secretly pleased by the Israeli campaign, I think that it is a bit more complicated then your quoting of Fouad Sinoura would suggest. I think that it is undeniable that the Sunni community in Lebanon has conflicted feelings about the attacks on Hizballah. Prior to this latest outbreak of violence, there was tremendous inter-communal tension between the Shia and the Sunni in Lebanon--mostly revolving around the axis of the Syria question. Hizballah and Amal have remained close allies of the Syrians, despite overwhelming evidence that Syria was complicit in the assasination of Rafiq al-Hariri. The Sunni community, represented principally by Saad al-Hariri and the Future party, has long resented this position and despite the fact that Saad al-Hariri has been parliamentary majority leader (not to be confused with Nabih Berri, the speaker), he cannot act without the acquiescence of the Shiite bloc. Many have been speculating in Lebanon, prior to the kidnapping, that if the country were to fall back into civil war, it would be a civil war between the Shiite and the Sunni, rather than the Muslim and Christian communities with the Druze alternating between them.

To make a long story short, Saad al-Hariri has been very quiet. His close allies in Saudi Arabia (the Hariri family was always, of course, very close to the ruling family) have made unambiguous statements against Hizballah. al-Hariri's ally in the March 14 Movement, Walid Jumblatt, has been making strong statements in the Arabic press against Hizballah (while also assigning some blame to Israel). I think that it is not unreasonable to suggest, as Lowry or his sources did, that a substantial element of the Lebanese government, at least the two leaders of March 14 (Jumblatt and Hariri), are willing to let the Israelis take Hizballah down several notches, before making stronger public statements and enlisting considerable international assistance (Hariri is much closer to the Saudis, the French, and the Americans than Sinoura).

I saw the Sinoura speech, and it was indeed desperate. You should also know, however, the Sinoura occupies a somewhat desperate place in Lebanese politics during peacetime. He does not come from a zaim family, he has no real base of influence in Lebanon born of business or family, and he knows that if and when March 14 finally topples Lahoud, he is out and Hariri is in as PM. It is not surprising to me that he would make such strong statements.

Perhaps Lowry was a bit strong in his language - "happy to see Israel pound Hizballah." I would, however strongly dispute your contention that it was breathtakingly ignorant.