July 25, 2006

The Importance of Shaba Farms

Shaba Farms as a key ingredient to any workable cease-fire? Zvi Bar'el thinks so.

Excerpt:

Saturday saw another development in the status of Fuad Siniora's government versus the strength of Hezbollah. After the government received "a franchise" to enter into negotiations on a prisoner-exchange deal, Energy Minister Mohammed Fneish, a Hezbollah representative, announced that once the IDF withdrew from the Shaba Farms area, Hezbollah's role as a "liberating" army would be over, and it would stick to a purely a defensive role. This is a very significant statement, because it begins to define the conditions for Hezbollah's disarmament.

The government of Lebanon, Hezbollah, the United States, France and the United Nations have all realized now that the key to achieving a long-term and sustainable cease-fire by means of the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south lies in a resolution to the Shaba Farms dispute.

Read the whole piece for the key Syrian angle too, critical with regard to Shaba Farms, of course. I'm starting to see the broad parameters of what a cease-fire deal will look like, and hope to provide more detailed analysis, time permitting, in the next day or so. It's also interesting to note that the Israelis think Condi Rice is in Israel more in 'listening' mode, which may well be the case give the Administration's posture in this crisis to date (though one wonders whether this is more by way of what Eliot Abrams may have signaled to the PM's office, and if Olmert's office might not be posturing a bit to the press in advance of the meeting to telegraph expectations). Regardless, note this Haaretz piece:

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will present Rice on Tuesday morning with Israel's conditions for a cease-fire in the north. Olmert will tell Rice that the new order in the country must be based on Resolution 1559, which calls for Hezbollah's disarmament and the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south of the country.

Olmert also is expected to tell the secretary of state that Israel will not object to a strong international force stationed in south Lebanon in the interim.

A political source in Jerusalem said the prime minister will also tell Rice that Israel will continue its military campaign in Lebanon, and has no intention of stopping it now.

The source believes that Rice is in Israel "to listen," and will not make any demands regarding an end to the fighting.

Meantime, Tony Blair sees a deal soon:

In London, Prime Minister Tony Blair said he hoped a plan, including an international force, a mutual cease-fire and the release of the captured soldiers, could be negotiated and announced in the next few days.

“If someone’s got a better plan, I’d like to hear it,” he said. “It’s the only one I’ve got and I’m trying to make it happen.”

The "next few days" strikes me as a rather optimistic timeframe, alas, but as I said, more on all this soon, I hope.

MORE: One reason the cease-fire is likely not going to happen within days is, not only the difficulties Condi Rice will have on the Israeli side (Olmert will want more time to further degrade Hezbollah capabilities--while attempting to ensure Israel clearly appears to have the leg up when the cease-fire is broached, which is not yet the case, so as to appear to be standing down from a position of strength), but also that her visit to Lebanon appears to have been, not suprisingly, rather dicey:

Political sources in Beirut....said the talks had not gone well. The US is seeking a package of measures that would involve deployment of an international force, along with the Lebanese army, south of the Litani river, an area Israeli troops have entered to try to stop Hizbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel.

Mr Siniora’s government says it needs cards in its hands – including an Israeli willingness to withdraw from the occupied Shebaa farms, which Beirut claims sovereignty over, and an exchange of prisoners – if it is to have a chance of persuading Hizbollah to compromise.

Mr Berri demanded an immediate ceasefire that would leave open the question of moving the Lebanese army to the south as demanded by Israel and the US. Ms Rice, who arrived in Israel late on Monday, was due to meet Ehud Olmert, Israeli prime minister, in Jerusalem on Tuesday followed by talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Although Washington has rejected the Lebanese prime minister’s appeals for an immediate ceasefire, she told reporters on her way to the region: “We all want to urgently end the fighting. We have absolutely the same goal.”

Well, not quite, unfortunately...