August 10, 2006Guns of AugustRichard Holbrooke, certainly the most talented foreign policy practitioner currently active in the Democratic party, and not a man prone to sophomoric hyperbole, writes today in the Washington Post: Two full-blown crises, in Lebanon and Iraq, are merging into a single emergency. A chain reaction could spread quickly almost anywhere between Cairo and Bombay. Turkey is talking openly of invading northern Iraq to deal with Kurdish terrorists based there. Syria could easily get pulled into the war in southern Lebanon. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are under pressure from jihadists to support Hezbollah, even though the governments in Cairo and Riyadh hate that organization. Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of giving shelter to al-Qaeda and the Taliban; there is constant fighting on both sides of that border. NATO's own war in Afghanistan is not going well. India talks of taking punitive action against Pakistan for allegedly being behind the Bombay bombings. Uzbekistan is a repressive dictatorship with a growing Islamic resistance. While I think saying that we are today presented with the gravest crisis since the Cuban Missile Crisis might be a tad overwrought (a tad, mind you) and I am less enamored by the Galbraithian partial pull-back to Kurdish areas Holbrooke recommends on the Iraq front (of which more another time), I certainly believe that we are at an extremely critical juncture in the Middle East. The fact that we are only talking to the Syrians via a charge d'affaires in Damascus is becoming increasingly irresponsible, as no stone should be left unturned at this stage in an attempt to secure an immediate cessation of hostilities. Meantime, and coming out of this crisis if we can belatedly contain it, we must give serious thought to the launching of a serious Madrid II process. Mamoun Fandy has more in today's FT in a similar vein: The Israeli attack on Hizbollah further marginalises the Lebanese government, thereby making Hizbollah more powerful – almost as the de facto state. The Hizbollah flag is being raised in capitals such as Cairo and Rabat. As a result, centres of moderation in the Middle East are undermined. There is still hope to contain and reverse some of the damage done to date, but it is manifestly clear to me that every passing day the Israeli-Lebanese conflict rages on will continue to cause tremendous harm to our national interest. Posted by Gregory at August 10, 2006 12:07 PM |
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