August 05, 2006

Straight Talk, and B.S. Talk

In life there's straight talk:

ABIZAID, yesterday: "I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I've seen it in Baghdad in particular, and that if not stopped it is possible that Iraq could move toward civil war," he said. "Al-Qaida terrorists, insurgents and Shia' militia militants compete to plunge the country into civil war. It is a decisive time in Baghdad and it requires decisive Iraqi action with our clear support."

...and then there's BS-ing me talk:

Q: Is the country closer to a civil war?

SEC. RUMSFELD: Oh, I don't know. You know, I thought about that last night, and just musing over the words, the phrase, and what constitutes it. If you think of our Civil War, this is really very different. If you think of civil wars in other countries, this is really quite different. There is -- there is a good deal of violence in Baghdad and two or three other provinces, and yet in 14 other provinces there's very little violence or numbers of incidents. So it's a -- it's a highly concentrated thing. It clearly is being stimulated by people who would like to have what could be characterized as a civil war and win it, but I'm not going to be the one to decide if, when or at all.

I prefer straight-shooters, myself. Note too Abizaid uses the "I" word (insurgents) because he well realizes the insurgency continues to rage in Anbar (unlike profoundly amateur bloggers masquerading as plausible analysts, who have repeatedly declared the insurgency defeated like rank ignorants), and he's likely aware the specter of a renewed Shi'a insurgency is getting increasingly real too. On this last, see here and here. And, don't miss this story either (thanks to reader DR). We don't control the roads, just like we don't control much of the battle-space. Don't get me wrong. Of course it makes sense to rely on airpower to move equipment around so as to reduce casualties. I'm certainly not complaining about it. I'm just pointing out that it's not just in Baghdad that our influence is on the wane. It's hard to escape the conclusion that we are increasingly moving towards failure, rather than success, in Iraq. And, needless to say, the deepening radicalization the Lebanon war will stoke among the Shi'a of Iraq isn't going to help much either.