December 06, 2006

Gates on Iran, Syria

SEN. ROBERT BYRD (D-WV): Mr. Chairman, I thank you.

Dr. Gates, our relationship goes back over a number of years.

Do you support -- now we hear all these rumors about the potential for an attack on Iran, due to its nuclear weapons program, or on Syria, due to its support of terrorism. Do you support an attack on Iran?

MR. GATES: Senator Byrd, I think that military action against Iran would be an absolute last resort; that any problems that we have with Iran, our first option should be diplomacy and working with our allies to try and deal with the problems that Iran is posing to us. I think that we have seen in Iraq that once war is unleashed, it becomes unpredictable. And I think that the consequences of a conflict -- a military conflict with Iran could be quite dramatic. And therefore, I would counsel against military action, except as a last resort and if we felt that our vital interests were threatened.

SEN. BYRD: Do you support an attack on Syria?

MR. GATES: No, sir, I do not.

SEN. BYRD: Do you believe the president has the authority, under either the 9/11 war resolution or the Iraq war resolution, to attack Iran or to attack Syria?

MR. GATES: To the best of my knowledge of both of those authorizations, I don’t believe so.

SEN. BYRD: Would you briefly describe your view of the likely consequences of a U.S. attack on Iran.

MR. GATES: It’s always awkward to talk about hypotheticals in this case. But I think that while Iran cannot attack us directly militarily, I think that their capacity to potentially close off the Persian Gulf to all exports of oil, their potential to unleash a significant wave of terror both in the -- well, in the Middle East and in Europe and even here in this country is very real. They are certainly not being helpful in Iraq and are doing us -- I think doing damage to our interests there, but I think they could do a lot more to hurt our effort in Iraq.

I think that they could provide certain kinds of weapons of mass destruction, particularly chemical and biological weapons, to terrorist groups. Their ability to get Hezbollah to further destabilize Lebanon I think is very real. So I think that while their ability to retaliate against us in a conventional military way is quite limited, they have the capacity to do all of the things, and perhaps more, that I just described.

SEN. BYRD: What about an attack on Syria? Could you briefly describe your view of the likely consequences of a U.S. attack on Syria.

MR. GATES: I think the Syrian capacity to do harm to us is far more limited than that in -- of Iran, but I believe that a military attack by the United States on Syria would have dramatic consequences for us throughout the Middle East in terms of our relationships with a wide range of countries in that area. I think that it would give rise to significantly greater anti-Americanism than we have seen to date. I think it would immensely complicate our relationships with virtually every country in the region.

SEN. BYRD: Would you say that an attack on either Iran or Syria would worsen the violence in Iraq and lead to greater American casualties?

MR. GATES: Yes, sir, I think that’s very likely.

SEN. BYRD: Your answer is yes on both questions.

MR. GATES: Yes, sir. Very likely.

More:

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I’d like to add my voice to many others who have praised you for your leadership. I’ve really enjoyed being on this committee, and you’ve made it a real pleasure to serve here.

Dr. Gates, thank you for your willingness to serve. It looks like we’re going to be working together for at least a couple more years. Things are going pretty well for you right now.

Iran. Do you believe the Iranians are trying to acquire nuclear weapons capability?

MR. GATES: Yes, sir, I do.

SEN. GRAHAM: Do you believe the president of Iran is lying when he says he’s not?

MR. GATES: Yes, sir.

SEN. GRAHAM: Do you believe the Iranians would consider using that nuclear weapons capability against the nation of Israel?

MR. GATES: I don’t know that they would do that, Senator. I think that the risks for them obviously are enormously high. I think that they see value --

SEN. GRAHAM: If I may?

MR. GATES: Yes, sir.

SEN. GRAHAM: The president of Iran has publicly disavowed the existence of the Holocaust, he has publicly stated that he would like to wipe Israel off the map. Do you think he’s kidding?

MR. GATES: No, I don’t think he’s kidding. And -- but I think that there are, in fact, higher powers in Iran than he, than the president. And I think that while they are certainly pressing, in my opinion, for a nuclear capability, I think that they would see it in the first instance as a deterrent. They are surrounded by powers with nuclear weapons -- Pakistan to their east, the Russians to the north, the Israelis to the west, and us in the Persian Gulf --

SEN. GRAHAM: Can you assure the Israelis that they will not attack Israel with a nuclear weapon, if they acquire one?

MR. GATES: No, sir, I don’t think that anybody can provide that assurance.

Still More:

Gates: I’m not optimistic that a negotiation with Iran would provide a lot of benefit. I know that -- as you well know, I co-chaired this Council on Foreign Relations study on U.S. policy toward Iran in 2004, with Dr. Brzezinski, President Carter’s national security adviser, and we recommended a negotiation with Iran. But I would say that the conditions have changed fairly dramatically since we wrote that report. Among other things, Iran has a new leader who is quite unambiguous about his views of the rest of the world.

Iran has gone from doing some things in 2004 that were harmful to our effort in Iraq, but also some things that could be perceived as being helpful to us, as far as I can tell, to being entirely negative now. They are clearly helping Hezbollah train fighters. So I think that -- I think the circumstances that led to the -- to our recommendations in 2004 have changed in some important ways.

I think it’s worth keeping an open mind in the vein of having all the options on the table. I think it’ll be interesting to see what the Baker-Hamilton recommendations are in this regard. I know that Secretary Baker -- one of his favorite lines is that it was only on his 15th trip to Damascus that he actually made headway with the Syrians, so it’s clearly -- they’re clearly a tough nut to crack.

I do believe that long-term stability in Iraq will be influenced by Syria and Iran, and I think that we need to look at ways, either incentives or disincentives, to bring them to try and be constructive in terms of the state on their border. How we do that, I don’t have any specific ideas at this point, and whether that involves negotiations or sitting down with them now by ourselves or in an international conference or putting it off until some later date, I think along the lines of keeping our options open at least merits thinking about.

Finally:

SEN. BAYH: One final question, Mr. Gates, with regard to Iran and their nuclear aspirations. I agree with your assessment of why they seek to have a nuclear capability. They impress me as the kind of individuals, the leaders of their country, that will only respond to the prospect of forceful steps; rhetoric alone probably will not be enough. I’ve been told that they see our continued presence in Iraq as a constraining factor on us, that it limits us from having as credible a deterrent with regard to Iran as we need to have to get them to give up their nuclear aspirations, or to at least give us the best chance of accomplishing that.

Do you agree with the statement that beginning the process -- or bringing closure eventually to our presence in Iraq is necessary to maximizing our chances to have the deterrent to deter the Iranians from their nuclear aspirations?

MR. GATES: Senator, I’m not sure about that. I think that -- I think that some of the public statements by the president of Iran, that some of the actions the Iranians have taken, are beginning in a significant way to frighten other neighbors and to create concerns among countries both in the region and in Europe and elsewhere, who are potentially in a position to be helpful to us in bringing pressure to bear, both economic and political pressure to bear on Iran.

So I’m not -- I’m not saying -- denying what you’re suggesting, but I think -- I’m not sure it’s right, either. I think there are some other factors at work that the Iranians are going to have to take into account.

SEN. CORNYN: Well, just one final observation. My time has expired. And again I thank you for your presence.

You know, I’ve been told by some that they view us as being bogged down in Iraq from a manpower standpoint, from a resources standpoint and that, frankly, they like that. They don’t want to see us extricate ourselves from that place because they know it constrains our ability to deal more forcefully with other threats, including the one that they present.

MR. GATES: When we did our study for the Council on Foreign Relations on U.S. policy toward Iran in 2004, what we were hearing then -- and things were going considerably better for the United States in Iraq at that time -- was that one of the reasons the Iranians were ambiguous in their approach to what was going on in Iraq, with some gestures of assistance to us, as well as doing some things that were not helpful, but that they were quite frightened by having U.S. troops on both their West and East border, Western and Eastern borders. And what I’ve heard -- and I haven’t talked to any intelligence analysts about this -- what I’ve heard is that the -- because they think things aren’t going as well for us, they’re not as frightened right now.

By the same token, it seems to me that if things do start to go right in Iraq, and we do begin to get the situation stabilized, that may, in turn, bring considerable pressure on them because they’ll see that they’ve got a different kind of state on their Western border than they had anticipated, that may not be as militarily threatening as Saddam Hussein was, but is potentially politically threatening, and also that the U.S. will have shown that we were able to be successful. It seems to me it could go either way.

I see much less cheap bravado and empty posturing above, in favor of more sanity and sobriety, certainly as compared to Mr. Gates' predecessor.

Note: Transcript here.

Posted by Gregory at December 6, 2006 05:12 AM