The Belgravia Dispatch: Boot's Way Forward: Plus Up + Biometeric IDs!

January 19, 2007

Boot's Way Forward: Plus Up + Biometeric IDs!

Max Boot shares his thoughts on what to do next in Iraq:

Perhaps the objection now is that 21,500 troops won't make much difference. It's true that, according to the new Army-Marine Counterinsurgency Manual, effective operations generally require at least one soldier or police officer per 40 or 50 inhabitants. That would suggest doubling our current force of 132,000 to secure Baghdad and the entire Sunni Triangle (population 13 million). But it would be difficult to find that many soldiers in the overstretched and undersized U.S. armed forces.
That doesn't mean, however, that the reinforcements Bush is sending are useless. As called for under a plan formulated by military historian Frederick Kagan and retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, the five newly arriving brigades should be deployed alongside Iraqi units to live in Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shiite neighborhoods in Baghdad. This is a classic counterinsurgency approach focused on securing the populace, and it has never really been tried before in the capital. It could work, especially if the surge is long lasting and if it's coupled with other vital steps — such as increasing the number of American advisors in the Iraqi security forces, instituting a biometric identity card to make it easier to detain terrorism suspects and enhancing the capacity of the Iraqi legal system to incarcerate more violent offenders.

If everything goes right, large swathes of Baghdad could gradually be brought under control. Then American and Iraqi units could pursue a "spreading inkblot" strategy — another classic counterinsurgency concept — to increase the pacified zone outward.

Of course that's a big if. It may be that we still don't have enough troops to successfully carry out this strategy. It may be that we don't have the will to see it through. It may be that we don't have enough reliable Iraqi partners. But considering the massive investment we have already made in Iraq, and the lack of good alternatives, it seems worth one final effort to see if we can salvage something from this dire situation. [my emphasis]

Max is right that we need to "salvage something from this dire situation". But lemme clue you in, it's not a "biometric identity card" that's going to do it for us, nor "enhancing the capacity of the Iraqi legal system" (let's dust off the civ pro chapter on service of process, OK, and by the way, whassup with all those brutish hangings, guys?!?). Meantime, note the potential understatment of the year in the above passage, where Boot cogitates about how it would be great if we could double the amount of troops in theatre: "(b)ut it would be difficult to find that many soldiers in the overstretched and undersized U.S. armed forces." Really, you think? No problemo, let's just surge away anyhow, OK, and hope "everything goes right." But Max, one query: will you support Kagan's surge even if no "biometric identity" cards are issued in Sadr City, or Doura, or Mansour, or Ghaziliyah and so on? Pray tell, as it appears an important component of your "strategy"?

Posted by Gregory at January 19, 2007 12:34 AM

Comments

I love how the rightard punditry always finds a way to make any discussion of progress in Iraq into thinly-veiled attempts to shill for Beltway bandits.

Posted by: los at January 20, 2007 05:24 PM | Permalink to this comment

In fairness to Max Boot, a reliable population census and an ID system has historically been a key foundation of successful counterinsurgency (though obviously biometrics is something new).

The problem is that *sigh* it's the sort of thing that should have happened in 03-04. In fact it was considered but was rejected on grounds of cost.

Posted by: Anthony C at January 20, 2007 05:36 PM | Permalink to this comment

Anybody who doesn't support a draft and the increased taxes to pay for the war as we go, isn't serious about supporting the war.

So it's a choice between pulling out versus dribbling in just enough force to lose.

Posted by: J Thomas at January 20, 2007 06:03 PM | Permalink to this comment

Why does any solution for a security issue proposed by the current crew, always involve a hugely lucrative technology contract!!! Civil affairs units and cultral/linguistic training would be more effective...BUT ALAS NOBODY GET RICH AT TAXPAYER EXPENSE...so lets scratch those ideas!

Posted by: centrist at January 20, 2007 06:48 PM | Permalink to this comment

There'll be a juicy sub-contract in providing the rechargeable batteries for the biometric scanning equipment, which will need to be reliable when the power grid isn't.

It happens I've just finished reading _Imperial Life in the Emerald City_. Since I haven't yet returned it to the library I can quote a passage about another kind of card:

'The CPA's economic team had no shortage of ambition. They began studying the feasibility of giving each family a debit card loaded with the cash value of all the rations they were due. . . . Otwell was aghast. No one in Iraq used credit cards. There were no automated teller machines. Phone service and electrical power were unavailable for much of the day. How did the CPA expect merchants to process debit cards? Who would purchase the reprocessing equipment? To Otwell, it was another ivory-tower scheme invented in the Emerald City.' (p. 228)

Posted by: David Tomlin at January 20, 2007 08:50 PM | Permalink to this comment

Re: Biometrics and debit cards.

This article by Bing West in the most recent Atlantic mentions biometrics as one element of successful police and counterinsurgency work in Iraq. West points out that Chicago police, for example, have hand held electronic finger print scanners.

Regarding David Tomlin's quote from the book about the putative silliness of giving Iraqis debit cards -- it's too bad an effort wasn't made to do this. For one thing, it would have made the Iraqi Army a lot more effective -- according to numerous reports, a significant percentage of Iraqi troops (I think I read greater than 25% in any given month) have to be on leave so they can hand deliver their salary in cash to their families. Also, moving away from a purely cash economy would impede a lot of the theft which funds the insurgency and sectarian violence. Issues of equipment and intermittent energy availability could have been surmounted and would have been worth surmounting. BTW, there are already ATMs in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Posted by: Dave P at January 21, 2007 10:14 AM | Permalink to this comment

Debit cards and biometrics....

Americans are such a provincial bunch of whankers.

Technology is always the solution. Hey it works in a large, well-functioning American city, eh.

Working in emerging markets far better conditioned than this one, and indeed with various electronic payment solutions and data exchanges, I have to say I find these suggestions really amusing. Ivory tower scheme gets it right. The bloody banks don't even have properly functioning systems, the back-bone simply does not exist.

Moving away from a purely cash economy.... Bloody fucking hell, that's a hurdle in the markets I work in, with no bombings, largely stable infrastructure and electricity. Iraq, it is and was a bloody unrealistic fantasy.

Does illustrate why the US bollixed this up - utter inability to wrap minds around a totally different situ and an obsession with technology.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at January 21, 2007 11:05 AM | Permalink to this comment

Lounsbury,

I'm not sure where you are working, but believe it or not folks in lots of places other than America are able to competently use technology. ATMs and debit cards aren't rocket science; lots of emerging countries have them and use them effectively.

Also, neither I nor Bing West (the writer of the article I linked to) claimed that technology was a panacea, only part of a potential solution. Why don't you open your mind for a moment and read the article? If after reading it you thing it's complete bullshit, you log back on here and make smug mocking comments about what a sheltered tool Bing West is; if not, maybe you will have learned something new.

Posted by: Dave P. at January 21, 2007 11:43 PM | Permalink to this comment

Yeah, I like the idea of metamorphosing the Iraqi economy into a cashless one. It would solve all kinds of problems. And the idea to force all young Iraqi boys into the Boy Scouts, this would do wonders for their moral self-worth, as well. The Boy Scouts have done wonders for the inner-cities of America, why not Iraq?

Posted by: SomeOtherDude at January 22, 2007 05:58 PM | Permalink to this comment

	« Surgin' Lowry, and Kagan's Latest \| Main \| Kissinger: Two-Pronged Diplomatic Approach Necessary » January 19, 2007 Boot's Way Forward: Plus Up + Biometeric IDs! Max Boot shares his thoughts on what to do next in Iraq: Perhaps the objection now is that 21,500 troops won't make much difference. It's true that, according to the new Army-Marine Counterinsurgency Manual, effective operations generally require at least one soldier or police officer per 40 or 50 inhabitants. That would suggest doubling our current force of 132,000 to secure Baghdad and the entire Sunni Triangle (population 13 million). But it would be difficult to find that many soldiers in the overstretched and undersized U.S. armed forces. That doesn't mean, however, that the reinforcements Bush is sending are useless. As called for under a plan formulated by military historian Frederick Kagan and retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, the five newly arriving brigades should be deployed alongside Iraqi units to live in Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shiite neighborhoods in Baghdad. This is a classic counterinsurgency approach focused on securing the populace, and it has never really been tried before in the capital. It could work, especially if the surge is long lasting and if it's coupled with other vital steps — such as increasing the number of American advisors in the Iraqi security forces, instituting a biometric identity card to make it easier to detain terrorism suspects and enhancing the capacity of the Iraqi legal system to incarcerate more violent offenders. If everything goes right, large swathes of Baghdad could gradually be brought under control. Then American and Iraqi units could pursue a "spreading inkblot" strategy — another classic counterinsurgency concept — to increase the pacified zone outward. Of course that's a big if. It may be that we still don't have enough troops to successfully carry out this strategy. It may be that we don't have the will to see it through. It may be that we don't have enough reliable Iraqi partners. But considering the massive investment we have already made in Iraq, and the lack of good alternatives, it seems worth one final effort to see if we can salvage something from this dire situation. [my emphasis] Max is right that we need to "salvage something from this dire situation". But lemme clue you in, it's not a "biometric identity card" that's going to do it for us, nor "enhancing the capacity of the Iraqi legal system" (let's dust off the civ pro chapter on service of process, OK, and by the way, whassup with all those brutish hangings, guys?!?). Meantime, note the potential understatment of the year in the above passage, where Boot cogitates about how it would be great if we could double the amount of troops in theatre: "(b)ut it would be difficult to find that many soldiers in the overstretched and undersized U.S. armed forces." Really, you think? No problemo, let's just surge away anyhow, OK, and hope "everything goes right." But Max, one query: will you support Kagan's surge even if no "biometric identity" cards are issued in Sadr City, or Doura, or Mansour, or Ghaziliyah and so on? Pray tell, as it appears an important component of your "strategy"? Posted by Gregory at January 19, 2007 12:34 AM Comments I love how the rightard punditry always finds a way to make any discussion of progress in Iraq into thinly-veiled attempts to shill for Beltway bandits. Posted by: los at January 20, 2007 05:24 PM \| Permalink to this comment In fairness to Max Boot, a reliable population census and an ID system has historically been a key foundation of successful counterinsurgency (though obviously biometrics is something new). The problem is that sigh it's the sort of thing that should have happened in 03-04. In fact it was considered but was rejected on grounds of cost. Posted by: Anthony C at January 20, 2007 05:36 PM \| Permalink to this comment Anybody who doesn't support a draft and the increased taxes to pay for the war as we go, isn't serious about supporting the war. So it's a choice between pulling out versus dribbling in just enough force to lose. Posted by: J Thomas at January 20, 2007 06:03 PM \| Permalink to this comment Why does any solution for a security issue proposed by the current crew, always involve a hugely lucrative technology contract!!! Civil affairs units and cultral/linguistic training would be more effective...BUT ALAS NOBODY GET RICH AT TAXPAYER EXPENSE...so lets scratch those ideas! Posted by: centrist at January 20, 2007 06:48 PM \| Permalink to this comment There'll be a juicy sub-contract in providing the rechargeable batteries for the biometric scanning equipment, which will need to be reliable when the power grid isn't. It happens I've just finished reading _Imperial Life in the Emerald City_. Since I haven't yet returned it to the library I can quote a passage about another kind of card: 'The CPA's economic team had no shortage of ambition. They began studying the feasibility of giving each family a debit card loaded with the cash value of all the rations they were due. . . . Otwell was aghast. No one in Iraq used credit cards. There were no automated teller machines. Phone service and electrical power were unavailable for much of the day. How did the CPA expect merchants to process debit cards? Who would purchase the reprocessing equipment? To Otwell, it was another ivory-tower scheme invented in the Emerald City.' (p. 228) Posted by: David Tomlin at January 20, 2007 08:50 PM \| Permalink to this comment Re: Biometrics and debit cards. This article by Bing West in the most recent Atlantic mentions biometrics as one element of successful police and counterinsurgency work in Iraq. West points out that Chicago police, for example, have hand held electronic finger print scanners. Regarding David Tomlin's quote from the book about the putative silliness of giving Iraqis debit cards -- it's too bad an effort wasn't made to do this. For one thing, it would have made the Iraqi Army a lot more effective -- according to numerous reports, a significant percentage of Iraqi troops (I think I read greater than 25% in any given month) have to be on leave so they can hand deliver their salary in cash to their families. Also, moving away from a purely cash economy would impede a lot of the theft which funds the insurgency and sectarian violence. Issues of equipment and intermittent energy availability could have been surmounted and would have been worth surmounting. BTW, there are already ATMs in Iraqi Kurdistan. Posted by: Dave P at January 21, 2007 10:14 AM \| Permalink to this comment Debit cards and biometrics.... Americans are such a provincial bunch of whankers. Technology is always the solution. Hey it works in a large, well-functioning American city, eh. Working in emerging markets far better conditioned than this one, and indeed with various electronic payment solutions and data exchanges, I have to say I find these suggestions really amusing. Ivory tower scheme gets it right. The bloody banks don't even have properly functioning systems, the back-bone simply does not exist. Moving away from a purely cash economy.... Bloody fucking hell, that's a hurdle in the markets I work in, with no bombings, largely stable infrastructure and electricity. Iraq, it is and was a bloody unrealistic fantasy. Does illustrate why the US bollixed this up - utter inability to wrap minds around a totally different situ and an obsession with technology. Posted by: The Lounsbury at January 21, 2007 11:05 AM \| Permalink to this comment Lounsbury, I'm not sure where you are working, but believe it or not folks in lots of places other than America are able to competently use technology. ATMs and debit cards aren't rocket science; lots of emerging countries have them and use them effectively. Also, neither I nor Bing West (the writer of the article I linked to) claimed that technology was a panacea, only part of a potential solution. Why don't you open your mind for a moment and read the article? If after reading it you thing it's complete bullshit, you log back on here and make smug mocking comments about what a sheltered tool Bing West is; if not, maybe you will have learned something new. Posted by: Dave P. at January 21, 2007 11:43 PM \| Permalink to this comment Yeah, I like the idea of metamorphosing the Iraqi economy into a cashless one. It would solve all kinds of problems. And the idea to force all young Iraqi boys into the Boy Scouts, this would do wonders for their moral self-worth, as well. The Boy Scouts have done wonders for the inner-cities of America, why not Iraq? Posted by: SomeOtherDude at January 22, 2007 05:58 PM \| Permalink to this comment		About Belgravia Dispatch Gregory Djerejian, an international lawyer and business executive, comments intermittently on global politics, finance & diplomacy at this site. The views expressed herein are solely his own and do not represent those of any organization. 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