January 04, 2007Talk of the Town: Disaggregation in VogueDear Eric, Are we all Kilcullenian disaggregators now? Best, Greg Excerpt from George Packer's excellent piece on Kilcullen: One night earlier this year, Kilcullen sat down with a bottle of single-malt Scotch and wrote out a series of tips for company commanders about to be deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. He is an energetic writer who avoids military and social-science jargon, and he addressed himself intimately to young captains who have had to become familiar with exotica such as “The Battle of Algiers,” the 1966 film documenting the insurgency against French colonists. “What does all the theory mean, at the company level?” he asked. “How do the principles translate into action—at night, with the G.P.S. down, the media criticizing you, the locals complaining in a language you don’t understand, and an unseen enemy killing your people by ones and twos? How does counterinsurgency actually happen? There are no universal answers, and insurgents are among the most adaptive opponents you will ever face. Countering them will demand every ounce of your intellect.” The first tip is “Know Your Turf”: “Know the people, the topography, economy, history, religion and culture. Know every village, road, field, population group, tribal leader, and ancient grievance. Your task is to become the world expert on your district.” “Twenty-eight Articles: Fundamentals of Company-Level Counterinsurgency”—the title riffs on a T. E. Lawrence insurgency manual from the First World War—was disseminated via e-mail to junior officers in the field, and was avidly read.
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why do i get the feeling that "disaggregation" and other such theories are the "workaround" being employed by liberal hawks and sane conservatives to admit what we Moonbats who have opposed Bush's "war on terror" policies have said (and been criticized for saying) all along --- that the primary approach to terrorism requires a "criminal justice" framework rather than a "military" one. Posted by: p.lukasiak at January 4, 2007 12:16 PM | Permalink to this comment I think that this is a repudiation in a way of Paul Berman's theory which has been avidly taken up by so many many hawks. Berman came out of the New Left and the big revelation for him and his comrades was, as Susan Sontag said refering to the crackdown on Solidarity, Communism is fascism. Berman took this basic formulation and linked all totalitarian political systems and ideologies. Therefore, to him, there was no real difference between Baathism and Qtub's ideology, and that Iran's theocracy was the same as Bin Laden's fantasies of a new Caliphate. This may be a morally reasonable way to think about it, but it is a strategic disaster. Posted by: RWB at January 4, 2007 02:13 PM | Permalink to this commentGreg, It's all the rage. PL, I'm neither liberal hawk, nor sane conservative nor Moonbat. But I do like me some disaggregatin'. What RWB said. Posted by: Eric Martin at January 4, 2007 05:29 PM | Permalink to this commentWe let ourselves in for a lot of intellectual wheel-spinning if we continue to discuss administration policy in Iraq and elsewhere without reference to the political context. That context -- the one that matters -- is defined by American domestic politics as they have evolved in recent years, not by politics in the Middle East or elsewhere. Specifically, the political requirement for a President deeply committed to a part of the world neither he nor the American public understand well is a clear message, true enough to be plausible and simple enough to be repeated often enough that everyone likely to vote hears it. It is true that a President deeply knowledgable about foreign affairs can build enough credit with the American public to be given the benefit of the doubt on policy; such a President can embrace not only nuance but contradiction. Nixon's China policy is the most often cited example, but there are many others. Bush is not this kind of President. This is not just or even primarily because he is exceptional among today's American politicians -- he is actually more like most of them than he is different -- but rather because victory in low-turnout elections requires high levels of political mobilization among a candidates likely supporters, and because this in turn requires a simple message. Bush's policy toward terrorism has excelled in this respect. His message to his actual and potential supporters has always been clear; he has effectively communicated a posture of resolve, of opposition to things Americans find distasteful, and of support for things (like freedom and democracy) Americans value. If most of your audience does not spend a great deal of their time studying Arab ideologies or the geopolitics of the Middle East -- and most Americans don't -- this level of clarity is going to appeal to that audience absent clear and overwhelming evidence that the resulting policy is going over a cliff. There is never any guarantee that foreign policies and cliffs will stay safely separated, but it should be clear enough that the danger of things going badly wrong overseas is greatest when the occupant of the Oval Office is largely ignorant of, and indifferent to, foreign affairs before he is elected. Presidents like that are a function of the electoral process, specifically a product of what the public is most looking for in a President every fourth year. In 2000 the public was not looking for sophistication or experience in foreign affairs, as it was not in other years (e.g. the Watergate election of 1976, 1992, 1996). Sometimes a President chosen in such a year will be lucky, and face only quiet times. Sometimes he will face a challenge for which nothing in his life has prepared him, and do very badly. What this has to do with Kilcullen should, I think, be apparent by now: Kilcullen is arguing as if what the administration is getting wrong is its analysis of various Muslim countries and groups. The problem is instead that the political imperative for a President under stress and out of his depth in foreign affairs is to send a message to the American public that is simple, clear and consistent over time. This imperative is what is driving the analysis, and Kilcullen is mistaking the symptom for the disease. Posted by: Zathras at January 4, 2007 08:12 PM | Permalink to this commentNo, you have this wrong. Kilcullen has it wrong. As Suskind pointed out in the 1% Doctrine, with tongue only slightly in cheek, Bush and Cheney came to see facts, and knowledge, as getting in the way of action. Or words to that effect. It was an amazing insight on his part. Facts and knowledge lead to contemplation. Contemplation leads to inaction. You see all the possibilities of danger. You go into a cautious holding mode. To hell with that, right W? Its as if they took Reagan's infamous slip up in one of his speechs, 'facts are stupid things" as a brillant new idea: 'facts are stupid things" indeed Kilcullen should get with the zeitgeist of the times. Ok, of course he's got it right. He's just about 3 years too late. Nothing in Kilcullen is new. A quick red of a little Tom Barry, Mao and any description of the Green Berets would led one to exactly the same conclusions. Ach! (Paging Dr. Freud, Dr. Freud!) Posted by: Paul Curtin at January 5, 2007 08:59 PM | Permalink to this comment |
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