The Belgravia Dispatch: Reader Poll

April 04, 2007

Reader Poll

With nearly two years remaining in his presidency, George W. Bush is alone. In half a century, I have not seen a president so isolated from his own party in Congress -- not Jimmy Carter, not even Richard Nixon as he faced impeachment.

When will the 30%-35% crack, with even the strongest minded Bush devotees increasingly peeling away from Ye Great Leader, so that Bush enters the Nixonian nadir of the middling to high 20s: A) the surge falls flat, with American forces again facing a widespread Shi'a uprising in coming months, too few troops leading to whack-a-mole in Diyala, Ninawa, and Salah ad Din, not to mention still in Baghdad and Anbar, the Maliki government continues to (mostly) flounder, and Turkish-Kurdish tensions deepen; B) the sub-prime mess spreads deeper into the housing sector, with attendant effects on the wider market; C) prices at the pump rise above $2.85-$3 through the summer; D) the Gonzalez taint spreads further to Rove and other inner-core, key kitchen-cabinet lieutenants, E) Cheney prevails on The Man to pre-emptively strike Iran, precipitating a series of cascading international disasters; or F) a massive attack rocks the Green Zone, resulting in scores or even hundreds of American and coalition deaths? Call me pessimistic, but some combination of the above is where I fear this Presidency is heading. And, yes, I hope I'm wrong, for the good of the country, if nothing else. Worth noting too, things are seldom quite as bad (or good) as we tend to think, but typically balance out, on the whole, so as to avert the worst disasters. Here's hoping, as I said. Are readers less pessimistic?

Posted by Gregory at April 4, 2007 04:51 AM

Comments

Actually I think attacking Iran would jet him to the upper 30's at the bare minimum. Attacking Iran (which had approval in the upper 30's last time I checked) is actually more popular than Bush, ironically.

Posted by: Newell at April 4, 2007 07:29 AM | Permalink to this comment

I think the fact there isn't a recession is key. If the economy tanks, then Bush is a total goner.

But there could be international developments that might crack the support as well. I think an attack on Iran would do it, along with some sort of blow-up in Iraq. Although a steady drip, drip of bad news from Iraq could have the same effect, though it might take up to 12 months.
I don't think the Gonzales issue, or other administration corruption charges will crack the base. It would intensify the disgust felt by the existing anti-Bush crowd. But you've got to remember, these people are on Bush's side, and also on the side of Bush's pals (mostly).

ALso, I don't see Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, Israel problems, if they crop up, as having much of an effect on Bush's standings. It's just too hard to make the case that Bush missed an opportunity, or fumbled diplomacy. The case may be there, but they have a really hard time getting into the public's mind. It's complex, and that's always a drawback to understanding.

(also: glad to see you are back posting again)

Posted by: Quiddity at April 4, 2007 07:33 AM | Permalink to this comment

I think the fact there isn't a recession is key. If the economy tanks, then Bush is a total goner.

(also: glad to see you are back posting again)

Posted by: Quiddity at April 4, 2007 07:33 AM | Permalink to this comment

Welcome back, Gregory. Pleasant surprise to see the RSS feed updated.

Any or all of the possibilities you mention could happen. The subprime mess will spill some, but probably not as catastrophically as some suggest. I think Bush & Rove will manage to run out the clock on the AG scandal. The surge will run out of steam, most likely sooner rather than later.

Will any of this effect Bush? I think the more pertinent question is, Will Bush effect any of this? With the exception of an attack on Iran, which he could conceivably manufacture single-handedly, Bush's relevancy is a legal fiction. It serves as cover for the GOP, and a rallying point for Dems. But for all intents and purposes, he's a stage prop.

The only thing the poll numbers will determine is whether there's an open GOP mutiny or not.

Posted by: Headline Junky at April 4, 2007 11:12 AM | Permalink to this comment

Buck up, Gregory--it's not all that bad. Don't let your feelings toward Bush drag down your view of everything else. Bush will continue to be Bush, but I'm much more optimistic about the nation.

While you seem to fear that massive attacks and uprisings are around the corner in Iraq, I tend to think things will continue about as they are now--perhaps a little better at times, perhaps a little worse at times, but ultimately not that much different. Bush will continue to see Iraq through his own prism, and the media and Democrats will continue to see Iraq through their own prism. Eventually, around the time of the Presidential primaries, the withdrawl will start.

Like most Bush "scandals" over the past six years, the Gonzalez scandal will slowly fade away with little distraction or change for the White House.

There's no way we're going to attack Iran--even Bush and Cheney know that attacking Iran would unite factions that are otherwise helping to undermine the leadership there. But they think they have to have to keep the threat of force--just the threat--on the table to keep the Iranians in check. That's all that's going on.

I don't think we're going into a great depression anytime soon. A recession? History says we're overdue for one, and history is rarely wrong. Recessions aren't the end of the world, though. Neither is $3 gas. In fact, the long-term benefits of $3 gas for the way we drive and the kind of cars we produce outweigh the losses. It's certainly nothing to get depressed over.

If you lose your optimism, you've lost something essential about being an American. Don't let Bush take that from you. If he does, it's your own fault--not his.

Posted by: Keith at April 4, 2007 11:40 AM | Permalink to this comment

Probably not too pessimistic.

My guesses:

A) The surge achieves some modest security successes, but violence continues. No political changes accompany it (of any substance), so the strategy doesn't really work.

B) Economy slows, but doesn't crash

C) Gas does, indeed, rise above $3 this summer.

D) More scandals are uncovered, investigations continue - but nothing of a "Watergate" variety

E) Cheney fails. Iran is not bombed.

F) No massive Green Zone attack

Those are my guesses.

Posted by: Ben P at April 4, 2007 07:25 PM | Permalink to this comment

I think your wrong.

The threats are for the whores for wars in the Republican Party. It keeps them aroused and interested.

Posted by: SomeOtherDude at April 5, 2007 01:38 AM | Permalink to this comment

I am equally pessimistic that at least some of the consequences you outline will come to pass. But I do not believe that Bush's support will drop much below 30%, no matter what. The people who have supported the Bush administration this long, and still do, bear a large share of the blame for the catastrophe that Bush has brought. They, like him, don't dare admit it.

RWC

Posted by: RWC at April 6, 2007 01:26 AM | Permalink to this comment

Sure glad you're back, Gregory. Want one of us to burp the child so you can blog?

A very well-put piece. And yes, you're pessimistic. So are Cub fans, with the team at 1-2 and already 2 games out of first. Both with ample reason.

Some combination of those scenarios seems all but inevitable at this point, and with these players in place.

Posted by: Wendell at April 6, 2007 02:23 AM | Permalink to this comment

Well, it sounds as if the majority opinion of doom and gloom has already been written. Perhaps it's time for a dissenting opinion.

Before the end of his Presidency, Bush will deftly orchestrate a Nixon-esque trip to Tehran. It's as good as done.

Posted by: Sookie Sookie at April 7, 2007 02:05 AM | Permalink to this comment

Looks like prediction F) 'Massive attack rocks the Green Zone" came true today; the cafe in the Iraqi parliament was just bombed. Should be interesting to see our response...

Posted by: Daniel at April 12, 2007 03:09 PM | Permalink to this comment