June 03, 2007

The State of Sadr

Much of what Bartle Bull writes here is dead on, but he neglects to mention the 800 pound gorrilla in the room, which is to say, every day we remain in Iraq--in large part attempting to temper Shi'a domination and revanchism by power-balancing on behalf of the Sunnis--the risk of a renewed conflagration with JAM increases. But, yes, he's spot on in focusing on Sadr as a canny Iraqi nationalist with much grassroots support among impoverished Iraqi Shi'a (rather than merely an Iranian agent, as lamentably under-informed U.S. bloggers would have it), and his observation that Sadr delivered his sermon from Kufa rather than Najaf is well taken in this context. Meantime, it's smart that General Odierno is putting out more direct feelers to Sadr, though I think the overall trend-line over the next months/years will be one of worsening relations between U.S. forces and JAM, not increased comity (unless we went for the so-called 80% solution, which of course would lead to an entire other set of massive headaches).

Posted by Gregory at June 3, 2007 03:21 PM