June 07, 2007
Turks and Kurds
Some analysis here. I think the chances of a significant incursion, meaning beyond what we've recently seen reported of late (and beyond what we saw on and off in the 90s), is trending north of 50/50, perhaps as soon as this summer/fall.
Posted by Gregory at June 7, 2007 04:44 AM
"...(and beyond what we saw on and off in the 90s)"
Those were massive incursions, troops numbering in the tens of thousands and lasting for months. What could be more significant than that, except for permanent occupation?
I find that hard to envision. It's not as if the US experience will have encouraged the Turkish general staff to dream of empire, while something even smaller than what we saw in the 90s would presumably serve the dual purpose of smacking the PKK around and getting the Kurdish Regional government's attention.
This is surely about eliminating the US middleman, and getting the Iraqi Kurds to deal directly and more realistically with Ankara. At the end of the day, they have SOME common interests, and even Turkish generals are not as delusional as American neocons.
I've heard that the Turks have already done several large scale raids into Northern Iraq already. I've also heard that the Kurds up there are armed to the teeth, since they fear what would happen if Iraq collapses. We need to try a political solution up there as our military assets are tied up in Baghdad and the Anbar Province.
Unrelated Greg, but I got your email (finally, weeks late). Reverted quickly and will follow up.
