February 26, 2003

Mexico Moving Towards Dubya Mexico

Mexico Moving Towards Dubya

Mexico looks increasingly likely to support the second resolution. Here is the latest state of play:

Yes Votes: U.S., U.K., Spain, Bulgaria; Highly Probable Yes Votes: Mexico, Angola, Chile Toss-Ups: Pakistan, Guinea, Cameroon

Likely Abstentions: Russia, China (As indicated yesterday but see additional corroboration here).

No: Germany, Syria, France

A few points regarding the remaining toss-ups. If Musharraf could risk significant dissent with his intelligence services (ISI) regarding cooperating with the U.S. to attack the Taliban surely he can support this resolution. He has taken even more controversial stances than with the Taliban--when he clamped down significantly on cross-border excursions into Kashmir after Deputy Secretary of State Armitage toured the subcontinent to walk the parties back from a potential nuclear precipice. If he could carry through and survive those two momentous policy decisions--I suspect he can easily handle whatever domestic discontent might stem from a U.N. vote.

Guinea, as previously discussed, has been cooperating with the U.S. military on its training needs and, as between France and the U.S., will probably end up with the States. Cameroon I guess sticks with France because of its majority Francophone orientation and more limited cooperation with the U.S. on military matters than Guinea. (contra the blustery talk by former US Ambassador to the UN Bill Richardson on CNN yesterday that "Cameroon hates France").

But even sans Cameroon, assuming the Adminstration gets the "highly probables," the resolution would find nine yes votes if Pakistan and Guinea were on board as I am predicting. Again, I ask, will Chirac veto if Putin abstains?