April 22, 2004

Proliferation Watch

"They are very clever cheaters."

--A senior French official, describing Iranian non-compliance with the IAEA process.

I have thought all along that the European Foreign Ministerial troika was, pretty much, getting bamboozled by the Iranians.

And, of course, an extremely punitive course spearheaded by Washington (above and beyond a condemnatory UNSC resolution) will lead the Iranians to cause us more trouble in Iraq.

In fact, Teheran is likely calculating now is an optimal time to try to achieve nuclear capability as Washington has its hands, er, full in Iraq (and, of course, it's an election year).

I'm afraid there are simply no good options here.

Continued diplomacy will, probably, allow the Iranians to go nuclear (unless the region became a WMD-free zone; good luck getting Israel to give up her nukes, Syria to give up her chemical capability; and so on ).

An Iranian Osirak spearheaded by Sharon would get the job done (at least for some time assuming Israelis are aware of all the key nuclear production locations).

But regional dynamics would take another massive blow and Iranian trouble-making (via Hezbollah in Israel and via other proxies in Iraq) would mount considerably.

And, of course, Iran could still eventually go nuclear.

Do any readers have better ideas? If so, please clue me in....

UPDATE: Porphy has more.

Posted by Gregory at April 22, 2004 11:41 AM
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