June 15, 2004

Another October Surprise?

No, not UBL. But an Iran with nuclear weapons?

Well, all told, likely not on such an expedited time frame. But issues surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions are shaping up to likely be the next major foreign policy challenge Bush (or Kerry) will have to face.

In some quarters, I suspect, there are already whispers that a nuclear Iran might be becoming something of a fait accompli...

UPDATE: Hoagland has more:

With no obvious workable military option, the next American president will be confronted with a growing feeling among Europeans that the best available strategy may be to try to keep an Iranian finger off the trigger of fully developed and deployed nuclear weapons.

Iran would then come to resemble Pakistan, which froze its development at the screwdriver stage in 1989 and then exploded its first device nine years later to respond to India's nuclear testing. The thrust of international diplomacy since the 1998 tests has been to prevent deployment of nuclear weapons by India or Pakistan.

Iran is a living, moving foreign policy quandary that is just over the horizon in voters' concerns. Kerry and Bush should move now to spell out the actions that would prevent this crisis from worsening as the campaign proceeds. That forces each candidate to think about the future and gives voters a chance to see each's judgment at work in real time.

Posted by Gregory at June 15, 2004 09:04 PM
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