January 05, 2005

Transformationalism Takes a 'Lil Breather

Details here.

Rising war costs and a stubborn budget deficit have forced the Pentagon to propose billions of dollars in cuts to advanced weapons systems, as the military refocuses spending from its vision of a transformed fighting force to the more down-to-earth needs of its ground troops.

An internal defense budget document for fiscal 2006 shows a vivid shift of emphasis from procuring the weapons of the future to fighting the wars of the present, numerous defense analysts said yesterday. The Air Force and the Navy -- once favored by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld -- would have to sacrifice some of their high-tech weapons development for the humble needs of the Army, such as tank treads and armor.

The internal budget document was approved by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz.

"The Air Force and the Navy are paying the bills to fix the Army's shortfall in resources," said Loren B. Thompson, defense industry analyst with the Lexington Institute.

The internal budget document, approved by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz and leaked to reporters over the weekend, shows deep cuts to weapons programs once seen as the future of the military, including an Air Force advanced fighter plane, a stealthy Navy destroyer, a fleet of modernized transport aircraft and the next generation of nuclear submarines. Even President Bush's prized missile defense program would be trimmed by $5 billion. In all, cuts over six years would total $55 billion, mostly from the Navy and the Air Force.

In contrast, Army ground forces, which Rumsfeld had once hoped to reduce and de-emphasize, would receive an additional $25 billion through 2011. Those funds would be dedicated to an ongoing Army initiative to break down its large divisions into smaller, "modular" brigades that would be more mobile and flexible.

As Warren Buffett put it when some people were, er, likewise getting a little carried away by their over-enthusiasms: "I will tell you now that we have embraced the 21st century by entering such cutting edge industries as brick, carpet, insulation and paint.... Try to control your enthusiasm..." Like those swooning before the mighty NASDAQ 5000; ditto for Don Rumsfeld and his transformationalist excesses. More tank treads and armor--less hifalutin' high-tech grandiosity. You know, I smell a tad less stubborness in Rummy of late. He probably sensed his job was in real peril over the past months. He's decided to "listen" more; as Richard Lugar recently suggested he do. That's good. He should keep listening--as he's made a helluva lot of errors. A little humble pie wouldn't hurt him now and again. To say the least.

Posted by Gregory at January 5, 2005 04:30 AM
Comments

Well this is a positive sign. I do agree with you there, Greg.

But why does the Army always get it all and the Marines always get short-changed?

Posted by: observer at January 5, 2005 05:29 AM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

Well, there is a possiblilty we will revisit this in a few years, say with a Taiwan crisis where american F-15s are getting shot down by the dozen, when the same people from the "armor" bandwagon hop onto the "not enough F-22s" bandwagon. The nature of war is unpredictable, so you better have armed forces that can be used in either high- or low-intensity as well as high- and low-tech conflicts. Throwing all resources into one scenario, that is the "fighting the last war" mindset.

apex

Posted by: apex at January 5, 2005 10:41 AM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

The cuts may be necessary, agreed. But I have to agree with Apex they are no reason to celebrate. Besides, what does this have to do with "transformationalism"? It is not mainly futuristic programs that get cut. For example, there is nothing "transformational" about the F-22 air superiority fighter program, which Rumsfeld already considered to be a cold war relic. It gets cut to 180 aircraft. Each F-22 may be 10 times as good as the 70s-era F-15, but if one is lost, there arenīt 9 left. Same goes for pilots.

Other cuts concern amphibious landing ships, destroyers, submarines, the Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft, the C-130J transport aircraft, and the "joint common missile" (whatever that is).

There are plans to retire another aircraft carrier (bringing the number down to 11). Carriers are as "down-to-earth" as it gets. Without enough carriers and air wings, the US could have done little in Afghanistan.

People complain that it takes over a year to armor all humvees. But aircraft, carriers and subs are assets that can only be built up over a decade, at best. In any serious future conflict, the loss of one or two of these ships can make the difference between winning and retreating. Such a situation may be unimaginable now, but havenīt we learned how fast things change?

Posted by: werner at January 5, 2005 01:16 PM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

Re F22:
The F22 might be the weapons system that breaks the Chinese bank and forces them away from the notion of forcible union with Taiwan. To be most credible, we need to re-establish an Air Force/Army or Marine presence in the Philippines. “If” the F22 is transformational, then we ought to extend the production run out for the next 50 years. One problem appears to be that the technology is distressingly old, so we need a mid-life upgrade after the first batch similar to what we did with the F18 (OK, maybe not so radical).

Posted by: Robert at January 5, 2005 02:51 PM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

The future of airwar is probably going to contain a large measure of unmanned and/or remotely piloted aircraft. I wonder whether the F22 turns out to be the apogee of manned US aircraft (warfighting) development

Posted by: DaveK at January 5, 2005 05:39 PM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

So, uh, in addition to sacrifcing our country's military preparedness and the lives of soldiers on the altar of fiscal responsibility, will there be any cuts to the bloated Education budget? Will Tom Daschle's multi-billion dollar ag subsidies (mainly to corporations like Archer Daniels Midland) be cut ? How about Medicare (20 per cent of which budget is lost to fraud and inefficiency?) What about the trillion dollar prescription drug giveaway, any cuts there? Any?

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