June 09, 2005

What's Going On In Syria?

Events involving Syria have been rather dizzying of late over the past years and months. Real cooperation and intelligence-sharing with the U.S. in the battle against al-Qaeda? Yes, on occasion, including accepting some of our renditions, lest we forget. Assisting with the conflict in Iraq? Well, assisting which side, one must wonder? The border has always been too suspiciously porous for such an authoritarian regime. No, there was never a Ho Chi Minh trail pouring into Iraq from Syria. But there are clearly too many bad guys getting over the border, as this widely linked WaPo dispatch from Ghaith Abdul-Ahad makes more than clear. And yet, there have been some efforts made at times to assist the U.S. with the Iraq war effort (as even Debka points out, though they conclude, not unsuprisingly and probably correctly, that Bashar ultimately betrayed the Americans--certainly if 100% loyalty is the standard). The obvious bottom line is that Bashar has been hedging his bets. All told, he probably wouldn't mind seeing the U.S. well bloodied in Iraq, with U.S. forces leaving his eastern flank sooner rather than later. At the same time, while he's made quite a few missteps of late that would have underwhelmed his father doubtless, he's smart enough to realize there are some red-lines that he can't cross with the U.S. So he buys good will now and then when he realizes people in Washington are particularly pissed and want to see remedial action taken by him.

In the midst of all these going-ons, there is much talk of creeping regime change in the air. From Laura, this NY Sun piece:

In the wake of Lebanon's first elections following Syrian withdrawal, American policy toward the world's remaining Ba'athist government is approaching support for regime change.

President Bush's top foreign policy advisers met last week to discuss the government of Bashar al-Assad, mulling, according to two administration officials briefed later, a tougher policy that would allow American forces or encourage Iraqi soldiers to pursue terrorists that escape to Syria from Iraq for safe haven.

At the State Department, the Bureau of Near East Affairs and the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor have asked Congress for explicit legal authority to fund liberal opposition parties inside Syria through regional initiatives that have hitherto focused on reforming American allies such as Jordan and Egypt, two administration officials told The New York Sun.

The White House is also pressing to expand the U.N. inquiry into the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, to include a probe of the June 2 murder of the anti-Syrian journalist Samir Kassir in Lebanon. Later this month, the White House is expected to apply tougher sanctions to Syria, possibly freezing bank accounts of the regime's top leaders, in accordance with the 2003 Syria Accountability Act.

The new approach is also palpable in routine diplomatic matters. Last Friday, when envoys from the Arab League arrived for a State Department briefing on Mr. Bush's meetings with the Palestinian Arab leader, Mahmoud Abbas, Syria's representative was turned away from Foggy Bottom and told his government was not invited, according to one diplomatic source who requested anonymity.

Josh Landis, on the ground in Syria, adds:

Imad Makki of al-Sharq al-Awsat who gets the best story in his article:...He explains that State Department officials recently called a meeting of all Arab ambassadors in Washington to get them up the pressure on the Syrian regime to "change its politics". Imad Mustafa, the Syrian embassador was not invited.

One Arab diplomat said that the US administration is talking about "changing the old Syrian regime."

I'm all but sure that Washington policymakers are not contemplating military regime change in Syria. The locution of choice, of late, is that Syria has been "out of step" with the assorted progress towards democratization that's being made in the region. That sounds to me like noises evocative of ratcheting up the diplomatic and economic pressure on Syria--but not a call to rush into Damascus guns a blazin'. But, that said, we're going to hear a lot more about Syria being 'out of step' in the coming weeks and months, I suspect. And, significantly, pressure is going to be exerted by attempting to isolate Syria within the Arab League itself, doubtless--not just with the Euros, Russians and Chinese as has been the norm.

This last is probably smart policy, because it directly confronts the rather sad appeals Bashar and some of his spokespeople have been making towards resucitating some grandiose pan-Arabist sentiment of late. Bashar made such noises at the Baath Party Congress, and Buthaina Shabaan recently stated (hat tip: Josh Landis):

Syrian Expatriates Minister and congress spokesperson Buthaina Shaaban accused the U.S. of seeking to undermine Arab identity by fostering religious and ethnic divisions.

"If we are not Arabs what could we be? Do we want to be Sunnis and Shiites and Christians? Or do we want to be Arabs? I think I can speak in the name of million of Arabs that we want to be Arabs," she said. "If the Baath Party was not there I think we would have to invent it."

That's really quite pitiable fare, isn't it? Someone send Damascus a better P.R. team! Others have been underwhelmed by going-ons at the Baath Party Congress too. Bob Satloff, writing in TNR, concludes:

For decades, America has been reluctant to classify Syria as a full-blown rogue regime because of its potential role in the Arab-Israeli peace process. That policy should be jettisoned. In its place, Washington should search for a third way between the bad option of a more effective Baathist dictatorship and the worse option of helping to empower Syria's radical Sunni Islamist militants. This will mean publicly encouraging the small, hardy band of domestic liberals that is routinely hounded by the regime and thrown in jail. Today, this group has little popularity, poor visibility, and virtually no organization; but if it becomes clear that the West will no longer throw lifelines to the Assad regime, the ranks and confidence of reformers may grow. Given how brittle Assad's government has become, Syria is one country in which a battle of ideas may itself be enough to trigger fundamental change.

I think Satloff is sketching, if a bit more robustly than policymakers are going to have it, the shift that appears to be occuring in Washington policy circles. The turning point for Bashar, I think, was the Hariri assassination. A strong presumption remains that the Syrian regime was behind the killing. Yes, Bashar bought himself some time when he pulled out this troops and agents out of the country. But, then again, did he really pull out this secret services? The recent assassination of Lebanese journalist Samir Kassir, not shy to write critically about Syria, appears the handiwork of Syrian intelligence. It's as if Bashar was sending a signal to his Baathist Old Guard that, well, he's gone from Lebanon--but not really (wink wink). That surely didn't go down well in Washington. Indeed, he's been less adept and wily than his father at toeing a middle road in the midst of the massive challenges facing him. He had to embarassingly rapidly run tail out of Lebanon, is enjoying pretty frosty relations with Turkey as is more or less the historic norm, Israel is keeping quite high pressure on Damascus doubtless waiting for the next Jihad Islami bomber to strike so as to allow for more missile strikes in Damascus perhaps, and meantime the Americans don't feel Assad is making a real go of helping the Iraq effort. That's a lot of pressure on a guy who was an eye doctor for a spell. It's certainly not an enviable position to be in, particularly as one considers that Asad is a minority Alawite resented by the majority Sunnis in Syria (approx 70% of the population). Still, this might be a factor in his favor. Does Washington really want Alawite Bashar out, with his occasional Shi'a sympathies, and a Sunni strong-man in? What will such a leader portend on his approach to the Iraq issue? Will making the border less porous be likely then? Satloff talks of supporting home-grown democrats in Syria. But they are barely organized, not cohesive, likely not ready for prime time or controlling any major constituencies. This isn't a call for status quo-ism. Bashar's behavior merits ratcheting up the pressure by isolating Damascus more in the months ahead. But let's be careful what we wish for on the regime change front. We don't really have a good feel for who might come in from the wings. More on all this soon.

Posted by Gregory at June 9, 2005 03:45 PM | TrackBack (0)

I'm all but sure that Washington policymakers are not contemplating military regime change in Syria.

really? based on what?

I tend to agree with that assessment, but only because the US is not in a position to overthrow another Muslim state in the Middle East because of what is going on in Iraq. But the desire among the PNAC crowd that runs foreign/defense policy for the Bush regime to engage in further military adventures in places like Syria and Iran remains strong --- and were the situation in Iraq to stabilize, Syria would be on the "hit list."

Its not the least bid suprising that Syria is not being at all effective at securing its own border --- Syria's leadership knows that it can't secure that border against the United States if Bushco decides to invade on some pretext -- and its best defense at this point is a porous border that allows the insurgency in Iraq to make it impossible for the US to consider invading Syria.

Posted by: p.lukasiak at June 9, 2005 11:52 PM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

Excellent post Greg....interesting stuff and good insight.

Posted by: The Cunning Realist at June 10, 2005 12:29 AM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

Greg -- all tyrannies are inherently unstable. As soon as the succession knives come out for Bashir the country will be rocked with wild gyrations wrt Lebanon, Iraq, and terror directed at the US homeland. Same goes for North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, and Saudi.

Even a very hostile Sunni state that was ruled with some degree of consensus would be preferable because the state would be predictable, and we have the ability if the will is there to simply build up our military.

Clinton cut our military 40% from what he inherited from Bush (Peace Dividend recall that)? So if the will to pay for it is there, we have the means to make our forces significantly larger again. Large enough to simply destroy any Syrian regime that was too hostile by harboring terrorists wanting to kill us.

Right now Pakistan and Iran seem to also be playing variations of Syria's game, co-operate and attack through other means the US. Both nations likely have lots of senior Al Qaeda members and know exactly where bin Laden is.

Whichever party figures out the winning strategy is to make the military so big that it can go into those nations and wipe out Al Qaeda nests with total impunity will be dominant for a long time to come. Particularly with the next mass casualty attack sadly only a matter of time.

Posted by: Jim Rockford at June 10, 2005 08:35 AM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

really? based on what?

Iran is more important than Syria.

BTW, you're completely wrong about that porus border being Syria's best defense- all that means is that getting rid of Baby Assad would be a good way to weaken the insurgents in Iraq.

Take out Assad, and we (eventually) get a democratic Syria *and* a stablilized, democratic Iraq. It'd also be a disaster for Hizbullah, would remove a government that is habitually friendly to terrorists, and eliminate a threat to Israel- and of course, the Turkish government doesn't mich like Syria, either.

Hm. Now that I really think about it, getting rid of Assad sounds like a really good idea. If it wasn't for the Iranian nuclear thing, it'd probably be in progress by now.

Posted by: rosignol at June 10, 2005 08:43 AM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

BTW, you're completely wrong about that porus border being Syria's best defense- all that means is that getting rid of Baby Assad would be a good way to weaken the insurgents in Iraq.

ah yes, more of the "they will greet us with rose petals" nonsense.

Here's a clue. Nationalist sentiments like those expressed by the far right are not an exclusively American phenomenon --- the Syrian people are just as nationalistic as Americans are. To suggest that "taking out Assad" would solve our problems makes as much sense as thinking that Syria could solve its problems by launching an attack on Washington DC and taking out Bush. (Were Syria's problems in Lebanon solved after the assassination of Hariri, which it supposedly engineered? I don't think so.)

Posted by: p.lukasiak at June 10, 2005 11:45 AM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

"If we are not Arabs what could we be? Do we want to be Sunnis and Shiites and Christians? Or do we want to be Arabs? I think I can speak in the name of million of Arabs that we want to be Arabs," she said. "If the Baath Party was not there I think we would have to invent it."

That's really quite pitiable fare, isn't it? Someone send Damascus a better P.R. team!

frankly i don't understand this kind of approach. non-theocratic baathist panarabism does not work because assad likes it and because saddam was baathist. sunni does not work because it may generate terrorism as it does in iraq, so please please no sunni rule in syria. shia may not work because it may generate theocracy as in iran, and anyway there are too few shiites in syria.

really, which other form of political organisation for the muslim world should an american policy support?

you may not think realistically that the political and civil societies in the near east and northern africa will turn to different forms than those they have experienced until now. they may modify, adapt and modernize these structures, but they will not throw them away.

Posted by: zuavo at June 10, 2005 11:45 AM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

Annoyingly the people of Iran aren't getting anywhere near as much attention as they need. Again widespread outpourings not pro-democracy sentiment have emerged over the last week or so, a further indication of what opinion's are like on the ground amongst the (very young) population of Iran. The Theocracy is on its way out, of that there is no question: it's just a matter of when and how much assistance the West can provide to help catalyse the process.

Posted by: Andrew Paterson at June 10, 2005 02:25 PM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

About DebkaFile's report on alledged Syrian assistance during Operation Matador, I refer you to Chester's recent comment on it: "the salt required to swallow this story comes in a very large shaker". The geography sited in the report is wrong, the size of the alledged Syrian involvement was just too large to be credible, & the tactics described run counter to US military doctrine. In short, the report was bogus.

Posted by: Kenneth at June 10, 2005 03:21 PM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

Actually, the pan-Arab rhetoric, pathetic as it may be, is traditional in Syria, which unlike many Arab states has influential non-Sunni minorities. If being Arab rather than Sunni Muslim is what is important Christian, or Alawite or Shi'a Arabs have better prospects than if religious affiliation is the most important thing.

This has been true for a long time, and points to a problem with Greg's outline of policy options. There is no "third way" -- mostly secular, liberal and democratic -- between the Syrian Baathists and Islamists. Those two ways are right next to one another, and many Syrians can slip back and forth between the two camps with little difficulty under certain circumstances. I have no problem supporting genuine Syrian democrats, but we need to be realistic; there are not many of them, and the limits on what they can achieve in terms of political change are discouraging.

There is reason to hope this situation may improve with time. But we are talking about a lot of time here, maybe years, probably decades. Democracy, citizenship, limits on the power of the state are not Arab political concepts. They originate elsewhere, among people who know how to make them work. Our task with respect to Syria is to defend American short-term interests, not to imagine that a liberal political revolution is about to spring up like magic. Greg's last point is quite right; in the Arab countries "regime change" is at least as likely to lead to worse as it is to better governments.

Posted by: JEB at June 10, 2005 04:14 PM | Permalink to this comment Permalink

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Posted by: root listen Features it toolbar at June 13, 2005 05:19 AM | Permalink to this comment Permalink
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